基于国际价格竞争角度的人民币汇率传递效应测算
he Calculation of RMB Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effet from the Angle of International Price Competition
本文利用协整检验和向量误差修正模型(VECM)检验了国际价格竞争条件下的人民币汇率传递效应。实证结果表明1)在美国进口市场上中国与东盟、日本和拉丁美洲地区国家存在着较为显著的价格竞争关系;2)在全面的考虑了来自各主要经济体的价格竞争因素后,中国对美国的出口价格受人民币兑美元名义汇率的影响仅为11%,小于现有文献的测算值,这也表明人民币升值并不能有效改善中美贸易不平衡的局面;3)中国的出口贸易整体上仍处于以价谋市的阶段,厂商为稳固在国际市场中的份额不会轻易通过提高出口价格来转嫁国内的生产成本压力。
In this paper, we have tested the RMB exchange rate pass-through effect from the angle of international price competition by using Cointegration Test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Empirical research indicates that 1) in the US import market, there are obvious price competition between China and ASEAN, Japan, Latin American countries; 2) after comprehensively considered the factor of price competition from major economies in the US import market, China's exports price is affected by the nominal exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar is only 11%, the appreciation of the RMB cannot effectively alleviate the trade imbalance between China and America; 3) China's foreign trade as a whole is still rely on the low price strategy, to maintain the market share, china manufacturers would not transfer domestic cost pressures by rising export prices.
赵永亮、李文光
贸易经济世界经济财政、金融
汇率传递效应价格竞争出口价格
exchange rate pass-through effectprice competitionexport price
赵永亮,李文光.基于国际价格竞争角度的人民币汇率传递效应测算[EB/OL].(2016-01-20)[2025-08-21].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201601-424.点此复制
评论