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1965-2008年华北北部日降水相关性变化特征

hange of daily rainfall correlation for the northern part of North China during 1965-2008

中文摘要英文摘要

基于华北北部地区63个站1965-2008年夏季日降水数据,分别将整个序列分为1987-2008年与1965-1986年前后两个22年时段以及1965-1975年,1976-1986年,1987-1997年和1998-2008年前后4个11年时段,对比分析各时段相关系数的变化情况。结果表明:1987-2008年时段与1965-1986年时段相比,相关系数显著减少的站点占绝大多数。第二个11年时段与第一个11年时段对比,相关系数显著减少的站点主要分布在西北部,显著增加的站点主要分布在东南部;第三时段与第二时段对比,相关系数显著减少的站点主要分布在东南部,显著增加的站点主要分布在西南部;第四时段与第三时段对比,相关系数显著减少的站点为557对,显著增加的站点只有1对。研究表明,华北北部地区降水相关性总体上在减弱,尤其是1998-2008年时段,减弱趋势更显著。

his paper was based on 63 meteorological stations with daily rainfall data during 1965-2008 in the northern part of North China. The 44 years' series were divided into two 22 years' periods which were 1987-2008 and 1965-1986. Correlation coefficients of daily rainfall between each pair of stations were calculated and compared for two periods. Comparing with period 1965-1986, correlation coefficients for period 1987-2008 for most stations were significantly decreased. Similarly, the whole period was divided into four 11 years' series which were 1965-1975,1976-1986,1987-1997 and 1998-2008. When correlation coefficients for the second 11 years' period were compared with those for the first period, stations with decreasing trends were mainly distributed in the northwestern part of the study area and those with increasing trends were mainly distributed in the southeastern part. When correlation coefficients for the third 11 years' period were compared with those for the second period, stations with decreasing trends were mainly distributed in the southeastern part and those with increasing trends were mainly distributed in the southwestern part. When correlation coefficients for the fourth 11 years' period were compared with those for the third period, there were 558 pairs of stations with significantly decreasing trends and one pair with increasing trend. In a word, correlation coeffients of daily rainfall in the northern part of North China were generally decreasing, especially for the period 1998-2008.

李维京、殷水清、张培群

大气科学(气象学)

气候学日降水对流性相关系数华北地区气候变化

limatologyDaily rainfallConvectiveCorrelation coefficientNorth ChinaClimate Change

李维京,殷水清,张培群.1965-2008年华北北部日降水相关性变化特征[EB/OL].(2015-01-13)[2025-08-18].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201501-205.点此复制

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