货币政策对房价的动态影响研究
The Dynamic Impact of Monetary Policy on House Price
房价上涨与经济增长出现背离后,为货币政策实施增加了难度。鉴于此,本文基于2000-2016年的季度数据,运用TVP-FAVAR模型研究了不同时期货币政策对房价的作用。结果发现,数量型货币政策对房价的脉冲差异显著,尤其是作用强度随时间变化明显,并且在经济"新常态"时期作用强调达到最大,脉冲波动性增加;而价格型货币政策对房价的脉冲在前五期走势及谷值极为相似,后期的反弹作用则存在明显的时间差异。所以,政府在实施货币政策后要关注货币量对房价的影响,以及利率政策后期的反弹。
he rise in house prices, which has been a departure from economic growth, makes it harder to implement monetary policy. In view of this, this article use the TVP-FAVAR model to study the effect of monetary policy on house prices in different periods based on the quarterly data of 2000-2016. Results show that quantitative monetary policy on prices trend of pulse difference is small, but the strength change over time, and in the "new normal" economy emphasizes the maximum; The price monetary policy is very similar to that of the first five, and the later rebound has a significant time difference. Therefore, the government should pay attention to the effect of monetary quantity on housing prices after implementing monetary policy, as well as the later recovery of interest rate policy.
段进、张秀芬
财政、金融
金融学货币政策房价VP-FAVAR
FinanceMonetary policeHouse priceTVP-FAVAR
段进,张秀芬.货币政策对房价的动态影响研究[EB/OL].(2017-05-26)[2025-08-16].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201705-1373.点此复制
评论