中国电信业发展和经济增长关系的研究

In this paper,the study on the relationship between the development of China Telecommunications and Economic Growth is based on the data of total telecommunication serivice and GDP from 1978 to 2014 .Using conintegration test and Granger causality test method,we established the ECM model between two variables.The result shows two variables are both non-stationary series,but exist cointegration relationship between them,that is long-term equilibrium.The ECM model tells us the dynamic effect of long-term equilibrium error to short-term fluctuation.The test of Granger test shows GDP granger cause the total telecommunication service.Based on the analysis of the relationship between variables, the paper puts forward some suggestions,one is increasing investment in fixed assets in telecommunications so that make the telecommunication service universal,the other is promoting the combination of the Internet and the traditional industries,thus promoting the economic growth.