汉江中下游地区水资源短缺风险分析

water transfer project might pass the water shortage risk to the source area to some extent. According to risk theory, the water shortage risk in middle and lower Hanjiang River is evaluated using Thomas-Fiering model, Box-Cox data transfer model, and self-optimizing regulation model. Sensitive analysis of main risk factors are also made, which showed that the water shortage risk in middle and lower Hanjiang River is mostly sensitive to water demand factor.