汶川地震极震区泥石流雨量预警模型

ebris flow in the magistoseismic area of the Wenchuan earthquake is frequently. And it has practical significance to carry out early warning research. In this paper, wenjia gully and niujuan gully have selected as two cases. Based on the observations from study area, at first, a comparison and selection model is established for find the most suitable model for describing the precipitation process in the study area. Second, select the relevant parameters of the warning model. Last, modeling the driving index of precipitation in debris flow (RTI) by Logistic model for dynamic early-warning. Results indicate that a precipitation start with more than 4mm/ h in rainfall and up with less than 4mm/ h for 6 hours is the most suitable model for describe. And the total rainfall is the cumulative rainfall. Early rainfall is the weighted sum of the seven days before this precipitation. The RTI20 is yellow alert threshold, RTI60 is orange alert threshold, and RTI90 is red alert threshold. Based on the debris flow events in the study area, the model can be used to prediction.