政府投资、经济增长对私人投资的动态效应和地区差异——基于1993-2007年我国三大地区的动态面板数据模型
ynamic Effects and Regional Differences of Government investment, Economic Growth on Private Investment:Evidence of Regional data by DPD Model from 1993-2007
关于政府投资对私人投资的挤出效应的研究争议较大,文章基于社会贴现率这一概念引进了经济增长因素,通过对东、中、西部地区1993-2007年的动态面板模型检验发现:经济增长率对私人投资的影响最大,西部地区表现明显,中、东部地区不显著;私人投资的动态效应在东部产生显著的持续投资影响,中、西部的持续性较弱且不显著;各地区短期政府投资普遍表现为挤出效应,西部较强,东部次之,中部较弱,但统计上均不显著,长期内将挤入私人投资;政府投资对私人投资存在间接挤入效应,以西部为典型。另外投资环境和经济增长对中、西部地区经济效率的提升具有更重要的意义。
here still remains considerable controversy over crowing out (in) effects of government investment on private investment. Based on the concept of social discount rate, economic growth variable is introduced in dynamic panel data model that uses data of China’s eastern, middle and western regions from 1993-2007. Empirical test finds out that economics growth rate contributes most to private investment, especially for the west region, while it is less obvious in the middle and east. Dynamic effect of private investment in the east is statistically significant, but not in the middle and eastern regions. Short-run government investment in each area demonstrates insignificant crowding-out effect,yet the west seems stronger than the east and middle, among all of which crowding-in effect works in the long-run. There exists indirect crowding-in effect of government invest on private capital and the west is the typical area. Moreover, investment environment and economic growth rate are of greater meaning for the middle and western regions to improve economic efficiency.
张锋、李国璋
经济学经济计划、经济管理
政府投资私人投资挤出(入)效应动态面板数据模型
government investmentprivate Investmentcrowding-out(in)DPD model
张锋,李国璋.政府投资、经济增长对私人投资的动态效应和地区差异——基于1993-2007年我国三大地区的动态面板数据模型[EB/OL].(2009-03-06)[2025-08-22].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/200903-224.点此复制
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