基于MaxEnt 模型预测中国兰属植物的分布格局及主导气候因子

Except for Cymbidium lancifolium, all the Cymbidium species have been listed asnational key protected wild plants, and the research of its future distribution patterns under the future climate would provide a reference and basis to protect this genus effectively. This papergathered the distribution information of Cymbidium and 19 climatic factors, and used theMaximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) and Geographic Information System (ArcGIS) to predict thefuture distribution patterns of the Cymbidium in China and its 20 species. The future distributionpatterns were predicted under nine different climate scenarios, including the current climate andeight future climate scenarios. We also analyzed the dominant climate factors affecting thedistribution. The results were as follows: (1) The precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio17), annualprecipitation (Bio12) and temperature seasonality (Bio04) are the dominant climate factorsaffecting the future distribution of Cymbidium. (2) The analysis of species-level shows that thesuitable areas of different Cymbidium species have different change trends in the future scenario,and the dominant climate factors affecting them are also different. The suitable habitat area ofeight Cymbidium species such as C. dayanum trends gradually increases, while the suitable habitatarea of 12 Cymbidium species such as C. tracyanum decreases. In conclusion, this study canprovide an important reference for in-situ and ex-situ conservation of Cymbidium, and has positivesignificance to the protection of Cymbidium and other endangered wild plants.