Evolving epidemiology of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 and possible interruption of local transmission outside Hubei Province in China: a descriptive and modeling study
Evolving epidemiology of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 and possible interruption of local transmission outside Hubei Province in China: a descriptive and modeling study
Abstract BackgroundThe COVID-19 epidemic originated in Wuhan City of Hubei Province in December 2019 and has spread throughout China. Understanding the fast evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the outbreak beyond Hubei would provide timely information to guide intervention policy. MethodsWe collected individual information on 8,579 laboratory-confirmed cases from official publically sources reported outside Hubei in mainland China, as of February 17, 2020. We estimated the temporal variation of the demographic characteristics of cases and key time-to-event intervals. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the dynamics of the net reproduction number (Rt) at the provincial level. ResultsThe median age of the cases was 44 years, with an increasing of cases in younger age groups and the elderly as the epidemic progressed. The delay from symptom onset to hospital admission decreased from 4.4 days (95%CI: 0.0-14.0) until January 27 to 2.6 days (0.0-9.0) from January 28 to February 17. The mean incubation period was estimated at 5.2 days (1.8-12.4) and the mean serial interval at 5.1 days (1.3-11.6). The epidemic dynamics in provinces outside Hubei was highly variable, but consistently included a mix of case importations and local transmission. We estimate that the epidemic was self-sustained for less than three weeks with Rt reaching peaks between 1.40 (1.04-1.85) in Shenzhen City of Guangdong Province and 2.17 (1.69-2.76) in Shandong Province. In all the analyzed locations (n=10) Rt was estimated to be below the epidemic threshold since the end of January. ConclusionOur findings suggest that the strict containment measures and movement restrictions in place may contribute to the interruption of local COVID-19 transmission outside Hubei Province. The shorter serial interval estimated here implies that transmissibility is not as high as initial estimates suggested.
Zheng Wen、Vespignani Alessandro、Wang Yan、Deng Xiaowei、Li Mei、Wang Xiling、Ajelli Marco、Yu Hongjie、Litvinova Maria、Wu Qianhui、Wang Wei、Zhang Juanjuan、Chen Xinhua、Merler Stefano、Liang Yuxia、Yi Lan、Yang Juan、Chen Xinghui、Longini Ira M. Jr、Sun Kaiyuan、Cowling Benjamin J.、Viboud Cecile、Halloran M. Elizabeth、Wu Peng
School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University,||ISI Foundation,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,Bruno Kessler Foundation,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,ISI Foundation,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,Bruno Kessler Foundation,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education,Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Health Professions, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida,Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health,WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health,Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center,||Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington,WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,
医学研究方法预防医学医药卫生理论
epidemiologytransmission dynamicsreproduction numbercoronavirus
Zheng Wen,Vespignani Alessandro,Wang Yan,Deng Xiaowei,Li Mei,Wang Xiling,Ajelli Marco,Yu Hongjie,Litvinova Maria,Wu Qianhui,Wang Wei,Zhang Juanjuan,Chen Xinhua,Merler Stefano,Liang Yuxia,Yi Lan,Yang Juan,Chen Xinghui,Longini Ira M. Jr,Sun Kaiyuan,Cowling Benjamin J.,Viboud Cecile,Halloran M. Elizabeth,Wu Peng.Evolving epidemiology of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 and possible interruption of local transmission outside Hubei Province in China: a descriptive and modeling study[EB/OL].(2025-03-28)[2025-06-03].https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.21.20026328.点此复制
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