基于前瞻性指引的美联储货币政策有效性研究

Forward guidance is a monetary policy to guide public expectation of future monetary policy stances or policy path changes by issuing forward-looking information such as macroeconomic forecasts or future interest rate paths. Based on theories of forward guidance and monetary policy effectiveness, this paper takesthe macroeconomic data from 1994 to 2018 as samples, and explores theeffectiveness of the Fed\'s forward guidance by establishing vector autoregressive model (VAR). The empirical results show that the Fed\'s forward guidance on monetary policy has certain effectiveness, this policy can effectively curb the decline in output, increase employment, and create moderate Inflation expectations.