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“四阶段法”在交通需求预测中的应用

he Application of Four Step Method in Traffic Demand predication

中文摘要英文摘要

交通需求预测作为交通规划的核心内容之一,是城市规划必不可少的前提,也是确保交通规划符合未来发展状况的重要条件。论文首先介绍了“四阶段模型”即交通生成预测、交通分布预测、交通方式分担预测和交通分配预测四个阶段并详细介绍了“四阶段法”在交通需求预测中的应用包括有OD基础数据和无OD基础数据两种情况。总结了“四阶段法”在交通需求预测模型中存在的问题并提出了改进的方法,例如利用GIS软件进行二次开发,结合数据库,对交通量进行预测是一种可行的方法。

ransportation demand predication as one of the transportation plan central contents is the essential prerequisite for urban planning and an important condition for transport planning in the future. First the paper recommends Four Step Method in Traffic Demand predication. Viz. Trip Generation, Trip Distribution, Mode Split and Trip Assignment. Then introduced the application of Four Step Method in Traffic Demand predication including OD essential data and non-OD essential data. Summed up the existing problems of Four Step Method in Traffic Demand predication and proposed improvement measures. For example, using GIS and Database is the feasible method in transportation demand predication.

程娟、秦鸣

交通运输经济

四阶段法交通需求预测

Four Step MethodTraffic Demandpredication

程娟,秦鸣.“四阶段法”在交通需求预测中的应用[EB/OL].(2008-10-31)[2025-08-17].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/200810-804.点此复制

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