基于Copula-Glue的水文模型参数不确定性研究

Parameter identification based on uncertainty emerges being the phenomenon of equifinality. The complexity and correlation of parameter distribution is the one of the main reason for uncertainty. In this paper, copula was employed to describe the correlation of parameters, and the uncertainty estimation method of hydrologial model based on Copula and Glue is proposed. When the parameters are relative, the proposed method can reflect the correlation of the parameters by using a joint probability distribution of the parameters to replace the two separate one-variable probability distributions, so as to avoid the probability of underestimating the uncertainty for model parameters in the traditional method. It also can improve the efficiency of the Monte Carlo method in some degree.