人力资本溢价对经济波动的影响研究

Using the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2003 to 2018, this paper explores the impact of human capital premium on economic fluctuations from theoretical and empirical perspectives, and finds that: (1) The impact of human capital premium on economic fluctuations is in a positive "U" shape, that is, appropriate human capital premium can slow down economic fluctuations, but when it exceeds a certain range, human capital premium will aggravate economic fluctuations. (2) the premium of human capital on economic fluctuation by labor structure, the influence of material capital, human capital stock three intermediary variable (3) the sample is divided into the east, and west, respectively, after the handover, found the central region of the human capital at a premium to the impact of economic wave is inverted "U" type, the east and west is "U" type. (4) Through further analysis of spatial regression model, the "anomaly" in central China may be influenced by the spillover effect of human capital premium in eastern China.