主成分分析和聚类分析结合灰色Gompertz模型预测“完美风暴”
Principal Component Analysis And Clustering Analysis Combine with Gray Gompertz Prediction Model to Predict the Perfect Storm
英国科学家约翰• 贝丁顿于3 月18 日在英国《卫报》发表文章警告称，气候变化和人口增长将导致食品、水和能源短缺，到2030 年，世界将面临“完美风暴”，出现大的动荡。世界由许多国家组成，全部都考虑显然不易实现，所以首先利用主成份分析法和聚类分析法选出适量、适当的具有代表性的国家，即取出样本来代表世界的水平。之后，利用灰色Gompertz模型进行预测，得出了与“完美风暴”值非常接近的数值，2030完美风暴将会发生。
Food, energy and water shortages, aggravated by a growing world population and severly changing climate ,will occur internationally by 2030 and the world will face with the perfect storm—a big disaster ,according to John Beddington,the British government’s chief scientist.There are so many countries in the world.It’s not easy to realize a good result if all these countries are considered.So,firstly,we use principal component analysis and clustering analysis to select appropriate and adequate representative countries.It means that some of them are selected out to represent the whole world.Then,with the forecasting of gray gompertz model ,we obtain the close numerical value to the perfect storm.The perfect storm will happen.
梁浩楠、张田
灾害、灾害防治环境科学理论社会与环境
完美风暴主成分分析聚类分析灰色Gompertz预测模型
Perfect StormPrincipal Component Analysislustering AnalysisGray Gompertz Prediction Model
梁浩楠,张田.主成分分析和聚类分析结合灰色Gompertz模型预测“完美风暴”[EB/OL].(2009-08-24)[2025-08-02].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/200908-381.点此复制
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