General Model for COVID-19 Spreading with Consideration of Intercity Migration, Insufficient Testing and Active Intervention: Application to Study of Pandemic Progression in Japan and USA

Abstract A new Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Confirmed-Removed (SEICR) model with consideration of intercity travel and active intervention is proposed for predicting the spreading progression of the 2019 New Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). The model takes into account the known or reported number of infected cases being fewer than the actual number of infected individuals due to insufficient testing. The model integrates intercity travel data to track the movement of exposed and infected individuals among cities, and allows different levels of active intervention to be considered so that realistic prediction of the number of infected individuals can be performed. The data of the COVID-19 infection cases and the intercity travel data for Japan (January 15 to March 20, 2020) and the USA (February 20 to March 20, 2020) are used to illustrate the prediction of the pandemic progression in 47 regions of Japan and 50 states (plus a federal district) in the USA. By fitting the model with the data, we reveal that, as of March 19, 2020, the number of infected individuals in Japan and the USA could be twenty-fold and five-fold as many as the number of confirmed cases, respectively. Moreover, the model generates future progression profiles for different levels of intervention by setting the parameters relative to the values found from the data fitting. Results show that without tightening the implementation of active intervention, Japan and the USA will see about 6.55% and 18.2% of the population eventually infected, and with drastic ten-fold elevated active intervention, the number of people eventually infected can be reduced by up to 95% in Japan and 70% in the USA. Finally, an assessment of the relative effectiveness of active intervention and personal protective measures is discussed. With a highly vigilant public maintaining personal hygiene and exercising strict protective measures, the percentage of population infected can be further reduced to 0.23% in Japan and 2.7% in the USA.