RIMA模型在江苏省GDP预测中的运用
he Application of ARIMA model in the Prediction of GDP of Jiangsu Province
本文综合运用时间序列预浏方法，建立了1978一2008年江苏省GDP的时间序列单整自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)。结果显示ARIMA(2,1,1)模型能能够提供较为准确的预测结果，并用以预测2009年江苏省生产总值，以此为江苏省经济发展提供参考数据。最后在本文的研究结果基础上提出几点政策建议。
his paper uses time-series prediction methods synthetically to establish a time series auto regressive and moving average model(AEIMA) for the GDP of Jiangsu province from 1978 to 2008. The analysis shows that ARIMA(2,1,1) model provides comparatively precise estimation results which can offer a reasonable basis for the prediction of the GDP of Jiangsu province in 2009. At last, this paper presents several political suggestions for the development of Jiangsu economy on the basis of the analysis results.
赵伟
经济学经济计划、经济管理
RIMA模型GDP预测时间序列
RIMA modelGDP predictiontime-series
赵伟.RIMA模型在江苏省GDP预测中的运用[EB/OL].(2009-08-04)[2025-06-25].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/200908-43.点此复制
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