1990-2019年中国蛋白质-能量营养不良发病趋势分析及预测

Background Protein-energy malnutrition (PEM) is one of the common nutritional deficiencies, and with changes in lifestyle and dietary habits, people are increasingly concerned about nutritional health issues, and the disease can affect the health of different age groups to varying degrees. Recent trends in morbidity, age-specific morbidity status and related predictions need to be analyzed and studied.Objective Protein-energy malnutrition (PEM) is one of the common nutritional deficiencies. By analyzing the incidence and changing trends of PEM in China from 1990 to 2019, we can understand the incidence of PEM at different ages and predict the future trends until 2029, and provide a basis. Methods Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) study, a log-linear model was fitted to the incidence rate of PEM by age and the age-standardized incidence rate from 1990 to 2019 using Joinpoint software to analyze the trends. Annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals(95%CI) were used to describe the trends of each indicator. Using the ARIMA model, the trend of PEM incidence in China from 2020 to 2029 was predicted. Results The standardized incidence of PEM in the whole population in China in 2019 was 1996.5/100,000, with males higher than females, and the highest incidence of PEM in people younger than 5 years old (4402.5/100,000), followed by 80-84 years old, and after 5 years old, its incidence increased with increasing age in both sexes. The results of the standardized incidence rate of PEM in China showed that the standardized incidence rate of PEM in China showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 1995 and from 2010 to 2014. The results of the age-specific incidence rate of PEM in China showed that the population younger than 5 years of age declined at an average annual change of 2.1% from 1990 to 2019, and the remaining age groups showed an overall stable upward trend in the average annual change. The prediction results by ARIMA model showed that the incidence rate of PEM in China will reach 7280.06/100,000 by 2029. Conclusion Since 1990, the incidence of PEM in China has been showing a steady increasing trend. And the incidence rate will continue to increase in mainland China by 2029. This study will provide a reference for the development of relevant policies and provide a basis for PEM prevention.