疏勒河上游径流变化与预测分析
nalysis of runoff variation and forecast in the upper reaches of the Shule River
采用1956—2020年疏勒河上游昌马堡水文站逐月径流量资料，选取基尼系数、洛伦兹不对称系数等8个 径流年内分配特征指标，结合M-K检验、R/S分析等多种统计方法，从年内、年际综合分析疏勒河上游径流演变规 律。结果表明：（ 1）疏勒河上游径流量年内分配呈单峰型分布，主要集中在汛期，除绝对变化幅度（ΔR）外，其余年 内分配指标均呈下降趋势，表明年内分配逐渐趋向均匀；（ 2）年径流量总体呈增加趋势，尤其在1997年发生突变 后，倾向率加大，年径流量平均值较突变前增加59%；（ 3）春、夏、秋、冬四季径流量总体均呈上升趋势，其中夏季倾 向率最大，冬季倾向率最小；20世纪90年代发生突变后，径流量平均值较突变前均明显增加，变化幅度排序为：秋季 （76%） >冬季（74%） >夏季（58%） >春季（45%）；（ 4）疏勒河上游年和四季径流量均具有多时间特征尺度周期，且第一 主周期均为56 a；（ 5）对2022—2024年径流量预测显示，疏勒河上游径流量在未来3 a将继续呈上升趋势。研究结 果为准确掌握疏勒河上游径流变化规律及特性提供了科学依据，对疏勒河流域水资源的可持续开发利用以及研究 相似内陆河流域径流变化规律具有指导意义。
quantitative analysis of runoff variation characteristics is the basis for finding out its impact mechanism, and it is also an important basis for accurately evaluating water resources. This study used eight annual distribution indexes, such as the Gini coefficient and Lorentz asymmetry coefficient, combined with the M-K testR/S analysis, and other mathematical statistics methods, to comprehensively analyze the process of the runoff of the upper reaches of the Shule River from the annual and interannual levels. The results showed that the following: (1) during the year, a unimodal distribution was shown, which was mainly concentrated in the flood season concentration degree (D), inhomogeneous coefficient (Cv), Gini coefficient (GI), relative change range (Cm) decreased respectively at the rate of - 1.053 · (10a)- 1 , - 0.015 · (10a)- 1 , - 0.009 · (10a)- 1 ,- 0.643 · (10a)- 1 , complete adjustment coefficient (Cr), Lorentz asymmetry coefficient (S), concentration period (Cn) all decreased at the rate of -0.006·(10a)-1 . The distribution tended to be uniform gradually according to the changing trend of its characteristic index during the year. (2) The annual runoff showed an overall increasing trend, but an abrupt change occurred in 1997, and the average annual runoff afterward increased by 59% compared before the change. (3) The runoff generally showed an upward trend in all four seasons, among which the trend rate was the greatest in the summer and the smallest in the winter. After the abrupt change in the 1990s, the average runoff increased significantly compared to before the abrupt change, and the change range was in the following order: autumn (76%) > winter (74%) > summer (58%) > spring (45%). (4) The annual and seasonal runoff in the upper reaches of the Shule River had multiple time characteristic scale periods, and the first major cycle were both 56 years. (5) According to the predicted runoff from 2022 to 2024, it was found that the runoff of the upper reaches of the Shule River will continue to increase in the next three years. These results provided a scientific basis for accurately grasping the runoff variation laws and characteristics of the upper reaches of the Shule River and had certain guiding significance for the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in the Shule River Basin and the study of the runoff variation laws in inland river basins.
牛最荣、贾 玲、张百祖、王鲁军、孙凯悦、孙栋元
水利调查、水利规划
径流年内分配年际变化径流量预测疏勒河上游
牛最荣,贾 玲,张百祖,王鲁军,孙凯悦,孙栋元.疏勒河上游径流变化与预测分析[EB/OL].(2022-12-20)[2025-08-02].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202212.00142.点此复制
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