黑龙江省热量资源变化及其对作物生产的影响
气候变暖背景下,热量资源变化势必对寒地农作物生长发育、生产环境及种植制度产生重要影响。本文利用黑龙江省1971—2014年67个观测站逐日气象资料, 计算了≥10?℃和≥0?℃的活动积温及无霜期等农业热量指标。采用线性倾向率、累计距平、M-K检验和经验正交函数(EOF)方法等统计方法, 分析了热量资源变化特征及突变特征, 以及对农业生产的可能影响。结果表明: ≥10?℃和≥0?℃活动积温分别以86.7?℃×d×(10a)-1和80.5?℃×d×(10a)-1的速率显著增加, 无霜期呈延长趋势(气候倾向率为3.8 d?(10a)-1; ≥10?℃积温和无霜期在1990年代发生突变, 突变后二者初日提前, 终日延后; ≥10?℃和≥0?℃积温的增加幅度西部大于东部, 无霜期延长幅度中西部大于东北部, 农业热量资源变化幅度大的地区亦是热量敏感区域。热量资源增加对农业影响, 表现在农作物适宜生育期延长; 适宜水稻和玉米种植的区域向北、向西扩张, 大豆种植重心北移; 原适宜种植极早熟、早熟品种的区域逐步被中熟、中晚熟品种替换; 热量增加为水稻、玉米和大豆三大作物产量的提高提供了潜在的可能
Under the global warming background, variation of heat resource has significant impact on crop production, environment and cultivation zone in clod region. This study used daily meteorological data form 67 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1971 to 2014. The heat indices of heat resource including accumulated temperature above 10, 0 and annual frost-free duration were calculated. Their variation trends and mutation were analyzed by using linear regression, accumulated anomaly method, M-K trends test and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The effect of heat resource on growing seasons analyzed. The results showed that the accumulated temperature above 10 and 0 increased significantly at a rate of about 86.7d(10a)-1and 80.5d(10a)-1respectively.The annual frost-free duration increased at a rate of about 3.8 d(10a)-1 . The accumulated temperature above 10and the annual frost-free duration showed clear mutation in nineteen nineties. The beginning day of the accumulated temperature above 10, 0 and frost-free duration were advanced and the terminal day of them were delayed. The intervals between the beginning days and the terminal days extended. The increasing rate of accumulated temperatures above 10 and 0 were greater in the west than that in the east. The annual frost-free duration was longer in Midwest than that in northeast. The area with great change of l heat resource was also sensitive area. The impact of increasing heat resource on crop production showed up that development stage of crops extended. The change of planting pattern presented that planting area of rice, maize and soybean enlarged. Suitable planting area of rice and maize extended into north and west. Soybean planting range moved northward gradually. For crop varieties, the original especial-early-maturity and early-maturity has been replaced by Middle-maturity and middle-late-maturity. The increasing heat resources could provide possibility of increased the yield of the three major grain crops. In the past 44 years.
吴双、宫丽娟、田宝星、杜春英、赵慧颖、赵放、张志国
农业科学研究大气科学（气象学）
积温热量资源空间变化作物种植带三大作物
吴双,宫丽娟,田宝星,杜春英,赵慧颖,赵放,张志国.黑龙江省热量资源变化及其对作物生产的影响[EB/OL].(2017-11-29)[2025-08-10].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/201712.01712.点此复制
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