官员更替与地方政府规模-基于动态面板模型的分析

Under the existing system of fiscal decentralization ,local governors which are motivated by the political promotion work on the planning of changing the local government size and implementing their policies.This paper studies the effects of political turnover on local government size by the method of systematic GMM based on dynamic panel data from 1995 to 2013.It reaches the following conclusions:firstly political turnover in the current period significantly reduces local government size ;secondly, the influence on local government size of political turnover during the tenure presents a feature of Inverted U Shape:negative effects appear at the initial term, which as the Inverted U Shape in left part depicts positive effects;positive effects appear at the medium term,during this period,the government size reaches its peak and then it remains stable,which as the Inverted U Shape in middle part depicts;positive effects weaken sharply at the final term,which as the Inverted U Shape in right part shows.