“完美风暴”问题中对国家的筛选
Selecting Countries in the Problem of＂Perfect Storm＂
英国科学家约翰• 贝丁顿发表文章警告称，到2030 年，世界将面临“完美风暴”。这里理解为人口增长、气候变化进而食品、能源和水资源短缺，人类的生存与发展局势全面恶化。世界由许多国家组成，全部考虑显然不易实现，故为科学验证“完美风暴”发生的可能性，首先应当取出样本来代表世界的水平。本文利用主成份分析法和聚类分析法选出适量、适当的国家；又进一步利用熵值法求权系数，最终得到合理结果。
he British scientist John Beddington published an article warning that by 2030 the world will face a \"perfect storm.\" Here we see it as the population growth, climate change and then the food, energy and water shortages, human survival and development face the overall deterioration. Since the world consists of many countries, it is obviously not easy to consider all the countries.So in order to vertify the possibility of the \"perfect storm\", firstly a sample should be taken out to represent the level of the world. In this paper, we use principal component analysis and cluster analysis appropriately selected the countries needed; furthermore,we use entropy method for the use of weights。At last we get the reasonable result.
梁浩楠、岳晓蕊、张田
灾害、灾害防治环境科学理论社会与环境
“完美风暴”国家样本主成份分析法聚类分析法熵值法
country sample in“perfect storm”principal component analysiscluster analysisentropy method
梁浩楠,岳晓蕊,张田.“完美风暴”问题中对国家的筛选[EB/OL].(2009-08-27)[2025-08-02].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/200908-448.点此复制
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