货币供给与经济周期约束条件下货币政策在股市传导的效应时滞研究

In the new economic environment, stock market is increasingly becoming a mature monetary policy transmission channel. This paper hypothesized that unpredictable money supply would have the greatest impact on the stock market and did the empirical analysis. After dividing the broad money supply indicator into the predictable and unpredictable parts of the broad money supply, it verified the unexpected broad money supply to be the greatest monetary policy tool that affect the stock market value mostly just consistent with the assumption. Than we adjust a system of indicators, through the rational division of the sample space, this paper obtained the length of the time lag and the dynamic response during the whole effect time lag. All the empirical results above revealed the existence of time lag of monetary policy transmission in the stock market and the dual non-symmetry including the length of time lag and the dynamic response during the whole time lag process under different economic cycles. By revealing all of the above conclusions about the dynamic effects process and the length of the time lag related to monetary policy transmission in the stock market, this paper provided theoretical support t for the formulation of monetary policy.