A national ‘safe and just operating space’ for all in India: Past, Present and Futurea

Abstract With 1.3 billion populaces on the commencement of the 21st century, India is currently impending towards upholding a subtle equilibrium between persisting social development and well-being without depleting existing biophysical resources at the national level or surpassing global average per capita obtainability. In this paper, we have structured a top-down per capita framework to explore national ‘safe and just operating space’ (NSJOS) to apprehend not only past fluctuations that bring about the present conditions but also the plausible future consequences, with India as a case study. Coalescing 27 indicators, all pertaining to Sustainable Development Goals (except – SDG 17), accompanied by their corresponding environmental boundaries or preferred social thresholds, present study probes into both biophysical (for environmental stress) and social development (for social deficit) attributes of India. This analysis shows India has already crossed three of seven dimensions of biophysical boundaries (freshwater, nitrogen and phosphorus use). Also, at the existing rate, India is going to cross the remainder of the boundaries within 2045-2050 (climate change, arable land use, ecological and material footprint). Of 20 indicators used for social development, only five have already or will meet corresponding desired thresholds of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 2015. Using tendencies of past variations, the results indicate that if lowest per capita consumption can be attained and uphold, even with projected population growth, total consumption of four biophysical resources (climate change, nitrogen use, ecological and material footprint) can be slashed from today’s level in 2050. Adaptations in national policy are indispensable if India wants to accomplish sufficiency in biophysical resources whilst bestowing social equity in access and exploitation of those resources towards the continuance of social developments in forthcoming times.