A modified SEIR meta-population transmission based Modeling and Forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan

Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started from China at the end of 2019, has now spread across the globe. Modeling and simulation of the COVID-19 outspread is significant for timely and effective measures to be taken. Scientists around the world are using various epidemiological models to help policymakers to plan and determine what interventions and resources will be needed in case of a surge and to estimate the potential future burden on health care system. Pakistan is also among the affected countries with 18th highest number of total detected number of cases, as of 3rd of June, 2020. A modified time-dependent Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) metapopulation transmission model is used in the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model (GLEaM) for this simulation. The simulation assumes the index case in Wuhan, China and models the global spread of SARS-COV-2 with reasonable results for several countries within the 95% confidence interval. This model was then tuned with parameters for Pakistan to predict the outspread of COVID-19 in Pakistan. The impact of Non-Drug Interventions on “flattening the curve” are also incorporated in the simulation and the results are further extended to find the peak of the pandemic and future predictions. It has been observed that in the current scenario, the epidemic trend of COVID-19 spread in Pakistan would attain a peak in the second decade of month of June with approximately (3600-4200) daily cases. The current wave of SARS-COV-2 in Pakistan with is estimated to cause some (210,000 – 226,000) cumulative cases and (4400-4750) cumulative lost lives by the end of August when the epidemic is reduced by 99%. However, the disease is controllable in the likely future if inclusive and strict control measures are taken.