基于固定效应模型的广东省旅游业依赖与经济增长关系关系

Based on data tourism development and economic development in Guangdong province from 2000 to 2011,this thesis takes an empinical regression analysis on the tourism industry's dependence and economic growth with fixed effects model .It has found that tourism industry's dependence and economic growth appears inverted "U" type curve, before the inflection point tourism industry's dependence promote economic growth, after the inflection point tourism industry's dependence hinder economic growth. Further study the reasons of inflection poin with fixed effects model, The tourism industry's dependence will have "Dutch disease" effect on manufacturing, and the negative effect on manufacturing developed pearl river delta region are the most outstanding,crowd-out effect on technology innovation investment level, increase government intervention in the economy at the same time, thus weakening system quality, Among them hindering the development of manufacturing is the main transduction pathway. However,the tourism industry's dependence will promote the improvement of human capital investment.