京津冀地区的极端降水事件及其成因分析
nalysis of Extreme Precipitation Events and its Causes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
根据京津冀地区19个常规气象站1960~2013年逐日降水量资料，分析了近54a京津冀地区极端降水的地域分布、时间变化及其与东亚地区大气环流背景的关系。结果表明：京津冀地区东南部的年降水量、极端降水总量和降水强度均大于西北部，中部地区的年降水日数和极端降水日数少于南部和北部。上世纪60年代以来，京津冀地区的年降水量、极端降水量、极端降水强度、年降水日数、极端降水日数、大雨以上日数都呈减少趋势，极端降水比例减少。1964年和1999年分别为极端降水偏多和偏少典型年；京津冀地区年降水量在1996年前后出现了气候突变。分析认为，京津冀地区极端降水变化与东亚大气环流季节性调整密切相关；当东亚地区中高纬度夏季平均位势高度场为负(正)距平时，京津冀地区极端降水偏多(少)；夏季印度季风、东亚季风和中蒙地区的气旋性环流偏强(弱)时对应京津冀地区极端降水偏多(少)；东亚地区夏季径向水汽输送和中高纬度纬向水汽输送较强(弱)时，京津冀地区极端降水偏多(少)。
Based on the daily precipitation data collected from 19 meteorological stations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 1961 to 2013, the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events and its possible relationship with the atmospheric circulation in Eastern Asia during the past 54 years were analyzed. The results show that the total precipitation, the amount of the extreme precipitation and the rainfall intensity over the southeastern of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed larger amount than that of the northwest, while the raining days and extreme precipitation days in central areas were less than that in both the south and the north part of the very region. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, since the 1960s, there was a decreasing tendency for the total precipitation, the extreme precipitation, the rainfall intensity, the rainfall days and the extreme precipitation days as well as the days with precipitation larger than 50mm, also the proportion of extreme precipitation decreased. 1964 and 1999 were the typical years respectively for more and less extreme precipitation; an abrupt climate change was discovered around 1996. Analysis suggested that: The seasonal adjustment of the atmospheric circulation in Eastern Asia has a significant effect on the change of the extreme precipitation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In summer, when the mean geopotential height anomaly field shows negative(positive) anomalies in the middle-high latitude area of Eastern Asia, the extreme precipitation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is more(less) than normal; The amount of extreme precipitation goes larger(smaller) with stronger(weaker) India monsoon, East Asian monsoon and the cyclonic circulation in the Mongolian area in summer; A large(small) intensity of the meridional transportation of water vapor in summer in the Eastern Asia and the zonal transportation of water vapor in the middle-high latitude area can lead to a large(small) amount of extreme precipitation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
张雯淇、孙卫国、陈方远
大气科学（气象学）灾害、灾害防治
京津冀地区极端降水阈值大气环流
the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regionextreme precipitationthresholdatmospheric circulation
张雯淇,孙卫国,陈方远.京津冀地区的极端降水事件及其成因分析[EB/OL].(2014-11-15)[2025-08-06].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201411-242.点此复制
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