供给侧改革前我国产出缺口估算及实证分析

In November 2015, the CPC central committee put forward the "supply sidereform", which aim to reducing production capacity and inventory, cutting down the leverage, at the same time, reducing the invalid supply, expanding the effective supply, improveing the supply structure adaptability、flexibility and the total factor productivity to make the supply system to better adapt to the demand structure changes. After two years of supply-side reform, China has successfully implemented the growth rate shift and the economic development has entered a new normal state. So back in history, was there really a problem of overcapacity in China before 2015? If so, how big is the output gap? This paper aims to answer the above questions. Firstly, this paper briefly introduces the research status of the output gap in domestic and foreign academia. Then introducing the SVAR model method and H-P filtering method as econometric model to calculate the data. Then combining empirical calculation results and the actual situation of our country\'s economy at that time to analyze the output gap situation. Finally, this paper conclude that at that time, China was indeed in the midst of growth rate shifting and industrial upgradingand there was a certain overcapacity problem .