基于修正的KMV模型的湖南省地方政府债券偿还风险测算

he general public budget revenue, the central subsidy income, the government fund income and the state-owned assets will be included in the solvency debt, and the formula to calculate the annual average growth rate of the solvency debt in the framework of KMV model is corrected. Then the local governments of Hunan Province as the main measure in 2018 local government bonds to repay the risk, with the 2017 sinking money instead of the KMV model parameters, based on the latest data of Hunan province at all levels of debt maturing in 2018 should be calculated on the basis of local government bonds to repay the amount, finally using the modified KMV model respectively to calculate the local government bonds the expected default rate. The results show that the risk of reimbursement between local governments at all levels in Hunan is quite different.