广东省入境旅游客流季节性研究-基于X-13A-S季节调整模型

he seasonal fluctuation of inbound tourism has become an important proposition in the study of tourism economics.In this paper, the X-13A-S model is used to decompose the inbound tourist flow in Guangdong Province to study the fluctuation of each component in 2009-2016.The results show that there are seasonal fluctuations in the inbound tourism passenger flow in Guangdong Province.Spring and summer are the tourism off-season while Autumn and winter are the tourist season.Spring Festival effect is obvious for inbound tourism ,manifested as pre-holiday suppression and postganglionic promotion.In the short term, the number of inbound tourists fluctuates mainly due to seasonal factors.In the long term, the influence of trend factors and irregular factors on the fluctuation of inbound tourists is gradually increasing, and the degree of influence of emergencies is also diversified.