ECHAM5模式和CCLM模式在长江流域模拟能力的对比评估
ssessment on Numerical Simulation of Climate Change in the Yangtze River Basin Based on the ECHAM5 and CCLM Models
利用全球气候模式ECHAM5/MPI_OM和区域气候模式CCLM在模拟实验期（1961-2000年）的逐日气温和降水资料，对比评估了两个模式对长江流域气候的模拟能力，并以1978年的干旱事件为例验证了两个模式对极端事件的模拟效果。结果表明：两个模式对年均气温空间分布的模拟能力相当，但CCLM能够准确再现在1980s年均气温的变暖期；ECHAM5模式的模拟结果中存在着虚假的降水中心，对长江流域降水空间格局的模拟与观测实况差距较大，而CCLM模式能够较好地再现长江流域降水的时空分布特征。 在对极端事件的模拟能力方面 ，CCLM不仅模拟能模拟出主干旱期，而且可以很好地再现了3个有雨区的分布格局。综上所述，CCLM模式更加适合研究长江流域气候数值模拟，并成为预估长江流域未来气候变化的有力工具。
he simulative ability of ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCLM climate models in the Yangtze River basin was assessed based on the simulated temperature and precipitation data for 1961 to 2000 and was further verified by the drought event ever happened in 1978. The results showed that both models can capture the spatial distribution pattern of annual averaged temperature in the Yangtze, but CCLM model can reproduce the warming period in the 1980s. The spatial distribution of annual precipitation simulated by ECHAM5 models was obviously different from observed facts and there was an unrealistic rainfall center in the simulation result. While, temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation can be described by CCLM model comparatively well. Besides, CCLM model also captured the main drought period and 3 rainfall areas during the extreme weather event in 1978. In a summary, the CCLM climate model is more suitable for simulation of climate change in the Yangtze River basin.
张杰、姜彤
大气科学（气象学）
大气科学长江流域气候变化数值模拟LM模式
tmospheric scienceangtze River basinsimulation of climate changeCCLM model
张杰,姜彤.ECHAM5模式和CCLM模式在长江流域模拟能力的对比评估[EB/OL].(2013-03-18)[2025-08-17].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201303-651.点此复制
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