汇率、出口退税和出口信用保险对出口的非对称影响研究

In order to accurately study effects of trade policies on regulating trade, and better to insure the growth of China\' exports, this paper selects exchange rate, export tax rebate and export credit insurance, three foreign trade policy tools, as independent variables, then analyzes the relationship between exchange rate, export tax rebate, export credit insurance and exports in the framework of co-integration and asymmetric adjustment through Threshold ADL Model (the Threshold Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model) based on the data from 1989-2017.The empirical result shows that exchange rate, export tax rebate and export credit insurance have long-term and short-term effects on exports when exports adjust to the long-term equilibrium. In the short term, only exchange rate and export tax rebate have significant effects on the exports. In the long run, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between exchange rate, export tax rebate, export credit insurance and exports. On the one hand, exchange rate has the greatest effect on exports, followed by export tax rebate and finally export credit insurance. On the other hand, two regimes are defined according to the activity of exports, and the effects of exchange rate, export tax rebate and export credit insurance on exports are asymmetric in the two regimes.