商品价格的需求概率与需求风险模型

Probability and risk models for the price of commodity are studied from the factor of its demand. At first, the probability distribution of demand and formula of price with maximal probability of demand are given. It is proved that the price at which the demand is maximal is that of maximal probability of demand, and that it is lower than the one with maximal profit. The price with maximal demand causes popularity of the price and consumption and can be understood as public price of commodity. Second, recurring to the measurement of risk in finance mathematics and extending the definition of variance, risk function of demand of price variable is obtained. Furthermore, after comparing the risks of demand of five special prices, it is concluded that the risks are ordered in turn from minimum to maximum for the expectation price, the price with maximal probability of demand and the price with maximal profit. Third, the probability and risks of demand of floating or discounting prices are discussed. Conditions for increasing and lowering the risks of demand due to adjusting prices are given. Finally, the results are verified by investigation of the favor of selection of passengers for the floating prices during the period of spring transportation in Kunming City.