BFS在洪水预报中的应用研究
Flood forecasting research based on BFS
本文采用BFS方法，对水文不确定性进行了分析研究，并提供了概率预报的结果。以三水源新安江模型作为洪水预报模型，通过亚高斯模型对流量的预报值以及实测值进行正态分位数转化，最后由贝叶斯公式得到流量的后验密度函数，由此得到概率预报结果。以南一水库流域作为应用实例，将新安江模型预报结果与概率预报结果进行对比，结果表明概率预报可以提高预报精度。
Based on the theory of BFS, the hydrologic uncertainty is analyzed, and the probabilistic flood forecasting is made. XAJ model is chosen as an example of hydrologic model. The actual flood discharge and the model discharge are transformed by Meta-Gaussian model to develop posterior density. The hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) is applied in the Nanyi basin. The results shows that the HUP for probabilistic flood forecasting which is based on BFS can improve the precision of hydrological model forecast.
张宇
治河工程、防洪工程环境科学理论灾害、灾害防治
BFS不确定性分析概率洪水预报亚高斯模型新安江模型
Bayesian Forecasting Systemuncertainty analysisprobabilistic forecastingMeta-Gaussian modelXin’anjiang model.
张宇.BFS在洪水预报中的应用研究[EB/OL].(2009-04-30)[2025-07-25].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/200904-956.点此复制
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