运营商重组前后的博弈分析
he game analysis before and after the telegraphic recombination
2008年,中国电信业将再度重组。中国移动通信市场将形成中国移动、中国联通和中国电信三个全业务运营商(同时经营移动业务和固话业务)寡头竞争的格局。寡头竞争市场在稳定状态下市场份额的分布有其规律性。本文参考Stackelberg模型对几大电信业公司重组前后进行了博弈分析。分析得出,重组前移动业务市场的份额会稳定在2:1的比例上。重组后的三巨头所占的市场份额比初期为4:2:1,但最终会稳定在3:1:1的比例上。从本文的分析可以看出,三大运营商在竞争的基础上展开合作才是它们发展的良性选择。而且,中国的电信业应放眼世界,走出去,开拓国际市场。
In the year of 2008,the chinese telecom industry will recombine again.The Chinese mobile communication market will engender the competition situation where the Chinese Mobile,Chinese Unicom and Chinese Telecom manage mobile operation and fixed operation at the same time .The distribution of the market amount of the oligarch competition market has disciplinarian. The paper analyses the game condition of the three operators before their recombination and after their recombination and elicits that before the recombination the market final proportion is 2:1 and after their recombination the market quotient proportion is 4:2:1. The final proportion is 3:1:1. We can see that the cooperation is their choice and they should go out of country to compete with the foreign competitors.
方旭、忻展红
邮电通信经济通信
博弈运营商重组模型
gameoperatorsrecombinationmodel
方旭,忻展红.运营商重组前后的博弈分析[EB/OL].(2008-05-28)[2025-08-25].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/200805-807.点此复制
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