Tracing foot-and-mouth disease virus phylogeographical patterns and transmission dynamics

Abstract Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) has proven its potential to propagate across local and international borders on numerous occasions, but yet details about the directionality of the spread along with the role of the different host in transmission remain unexplored. To elucidate FMDV global spread characteristics, we studied the spatiotemporal phylodynamics of serotypes O, A, Asia1, SAT1, SAT2, and SAT3, based on more than 50 years of phylogenetic and epidemiological information. Our results revealed phylogeographic patterns, dispersal rates, and the role of host species in the dispersal and maintenance of virus circulation. Contrary to previous studies, our results showed that three serotypes were monophyletic (O, A, and Asia1), while all SATs serotypes did not evidence a defined common ancestor. Root state posterior probability (RSPP) analysis suggested Belgium as the country of origin for serotype O (RSPP=0.27). India was the ancestral country for serotypes A (RSPP= 0.28), and Asia-1 (RSPP= 0.34), while Uganda appeared as the most likely origin country of all SAT serotypes (RSPP> 0.45). Furthermore, we identified the key centers of dispersal of the virus, being China, India and Uganda the most important ones. Bayes factor analysis revealed cattle as the major source of the virus for most of the serotypes (RSPP> 0.63), where the most important host-species transition route for serotypes O, A, and Asia1 was from cattle Bos taurus to swine Sus scrofa domesticus (BF>500), while, for SAT serotypes was from B. taurus to African buffalo Syncerus caffer. This study provides significant insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of the global circulation of FMDV serotypes, by characterizing the viral routes of spread at serotype level, especially uncovering the importance of host species for each serotype in the evolution and spread of FMDV which further improve future decisions for more efficient control and eradication.