复杂地基上拱坝的随机力学仿真与可靠度研究

he physical parameters of constructing materials and the loads on arch dam are all random variables for a constructed and used arch dam, They give rise to the uncertainties of stress and deformation of arch dam. Therefore analyzing the structural reliability of arch dam is necessary and reasonable. Because of the complexities of the structure of arch dam and the nonlinear property of foundation rock and concrete, it is very difficult to carry out the reliability analysis to this kind of structures. In this paper, the response surface method (RSM) for reliability analysis is adopted to calculate the reliability of arch dam. 3D nonlinear finite element method is applied to calculate stress and deformation of arch dam. The two-order RSM is applied to the reliability analysis of arch dam. According to the arch dam of Dayang power station of Yongtai county Fujian province, the calculation of reliability of the heel and shoulder are conducted and better results are obtained. Compared with other reliability analysis methods, the proposed method can be used determinate calculate programs. It makes reliability analysis convenient and show a good prospect of large and complex structures’ reliability analysis.