社交媒体环境下突发事件严重性评估和预警机制研究

Purpose/significance] Due to the rapid spread and deterioration of public emergencies, emergency management departments need to evaluate the severity of emergencies in real time and establish a scientific early warning mechanism. Microblogging and other social media platforms provide rich clues for the real-time study and judgment of emergencies. [Method/process] This study constructed the severity assessment indexes of emergencies from the dimensions of the netizens’ role, the Internet media’s role, the spread of events, attitudes and feelings of netizens. The methods of analyzing the influence tendency of the emergency severity indexes and comparing the features were put forward. A total of 1 107 308 microblogging entries regarding four social security incidents of "8.24 Yueqing Girl Riding Murder" "5.6 Zhengzhou Stewardess Taxi Murder" "8.27 Kunshan Knife-Cutting Case" in 2018 and "Ctrip Kindergarten Abuse Incident" in 2017 were investigated. [Result/conclusion] The results of the study establish a quantitative classification standard for public emergencies, and provide method guidance and data support for the governments to take emergency management measures in time.