基本养老保险基金的组合预测方法构建

he fundamental pension insurance fund is the key to implementing the system of pension insurance smoothly. It can provide the certain decision-making basis for social security department to adjust and perfect pension system by forecasting future pension insurance fund of income and expenses. This paper depends on fuzzy measure which is based on the power muster of several single forecasting models , uses Choquet fuzzy integral as combination operators, obeys principle that square sum of simulation error is the least, confirms “the importance” of each model, and establishs the combination forecasting model on fuzzy measure .It is based on the revenue and expenditure situation of our pension insurance fund these years , simulates and forecasts the pension insurance by this combination forecasting, and it gets fairly good effect.