Research on the temporal evolution track and influence of green development in the last decade

Abstract Green development is important to realize the coordinated development of local ecological environment, economy and society, but also an important way to promote the harmony between human and land. This study utilizes projection pursuit model (PPM) measure, as well as the system gray prediction model GM (1, N), and other measurement methods, build an evaluation system from three dimensions of green fortune, green growth and green benefits to analyze the temporal evolution, development trend and its influencing factors of Baoshan’s ecological engineering of project acres, the results show: (1)The overall level of the green development system in Baoshan, Yunnan Province, is relatively good and shows an increasing trend year by year, with an average growth rate of 18.3%, and there is a synergistic coupling effect among the three subsystems. (2) Regional green development has achieved remarkable progress, but problems and pressure among the three subsystems are still grim. The sub-system of green growth and green benefits declined from 2010 to 2016, with an annual decline rate of 12%, and then picked up slightly in the next three years, reflecting the pressure of resources and ecological environment in this region and the difficulty of the sub-system of green wealth growth. (3) The prediction analysis shows that the green development index in Baoshan, Yunnan Province will keep a steady rise in the next two years, and the predicted value will be 4.51 in 2020, with an average growth rate of 15.1%, and the regional green development system is in good condition. (4) Green development is mainly affected by environmental pollution, industrial structure, urbanization, population, market and other factors from the three subsystems of local ecology, ecology, economy and social benefits. This paper puts forward suggestions in terms of popularizing the concept of green development, improving the level of ecological economic development and promoting the regional environment bearing capacity, green development model of ecological engineering area is also built. It aims to have some practical reference value for prompting regional ecological civilization construction and green development. And provide regional support for the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework and the Achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.