乌鲁木齐气温特征分析及短期预报

In this paper, Use of Urumqi meteorological observations from 1961 to 2010, thought the climate trend rate and M-K mutagenesis to analyze characteristics annual temperature, and using a gray forecasting model to predict the temperature, the following conclusions: (1) the last 50 years, Urumqi, the average annual temperature is rising, about every 10 years the growth 0.184℃. In the 20th century, before the mid-1980s, the average annual temperature is fluctuating overall downward trend, in 1985 the declining trend reached its lowest point. Temperatures rebound in 1985, the overall upward trend fluctuated. (2) about 50 years form 1961 to 2010, the presence of abnormal mutation point mutation Year 2004. (3) According to the gray forecasting model to predict the 2011-2015 annual average temperature was 7.65℃,7.77℃,7.88℃,8.00℃, 8.13℃.