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灰色马尔科夫模型在城镇职工年平均收入预测中的应用

he prediction of average income for urban workers based on Grey Markov Model

中文摘要英文摘要

本文对灰色预测模型的优点和不足进行了简要的分析说明,并基于马尔科夫链对灰色模型进行修正,建立了灰色马尔科夫预测模型。该模型既能体现灰色系统预测可用于复杂条件及少量原始数据的应用特点,又能利用马尔科夫模型对灰色模型的随机性进行修正,消除了传统灰色预测的固定偏差。利用2004-2013年的城镇职工平均工资数据对模型进行预测验证,结果显示灰色马尔科夫模型预测精度较高,其精度完全满足检验等级要求,该模型在城镇职工年平均收入的预测上具有较高的科学性和实用性。

In this paper, we make a brief analysis of advantages and disadvantages of the Grey Prediction Model, then repair the error by using Markov chain and set up Grey Markov model. This model can be used in the complex environment with less date, also it can offers the opportunity to correct the problem of randomness and erase the biases. By using the date of the urban workers' average income from 2004 to 2013. We can test the Grey Markov model and proved that it meet the requirement of accuracy. So this model can be used in the prediction of average income for urban workers, which has a certain practicability and reference value.

李昊、钱存华

经济计划、经济管理财政、金融

收入预测灰色模型马尔科夫链精度检验

revenue forecastingGrey modelMarkov chainaccuracy test

李昊,钱存华.灰色马尔科夫模型在城镇职工年平均收入预测中的应用[EB/OL].(2015-03-18)[2025-08-17].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201503-181.点此复制

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