基于系统动力学的新能源汽车保有量预测
Prediction of new energy vehicle ownership based on system dynamics
本文结合新能源汽车的发展现状，分析了影响新能源汽车保有量的关键因素，然后构建新能源汽车保有量仿真预测的系统动力学模型。先基于历史数据进行模拟仿真，发现仿真模型结果接近历史数据，之后对未来新能源汽车的保有量进行预测，结果显示，新能源汽车保有量将从2030年起快速增长，并且驱动因素也从政策转变到了成本以及基础设施的发展程度。最后从三个角度为我国新能源汽车的发展提出了建议。
ombined with the development status of new energy vehicles, this paper first analyzes the key factors affecting the ownership of new energy vehicles, and then constructs a system dynamics model for the prediction of the ownership of new energy vehicles to predict the development prospect of new energy vehicles. The results show that the number of new energy vehicles will increase rapidly from 2010, and the driving factors have changed from policy to cost and infrastructure development. Finally, some suggestions for the development of new energy vehicles in China are put forward from three angles.
都昊、黄逸珺、杜利
能源动力工业经济交通运输经济
新能源汽车保有量预测系统动力学Vensim软件
New energy vehiclesOwnership forecastSystem dynamicsVensim software
都昊,黄逸珺,杜利.基于系统动力学的新能源汽车保有量预测[EB/OL].(2021-11-19)[2025-08-02].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/202111-51.点此复制
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