哪里是政府与市场的合理边界？对中国电力市场化改革的CGE模拟分析

In the transition from a planned economy to a market-oriented economy, how to define the boundary between government and market properly has always been the subject of a heated debate. In the light of long-term and deep-seated issues in China's electricity industry, we choose this industry as the object of our analysis, and then employ CGE model with a Keynesian macroeconomic closure, to examine potential impacts of the deregulation of electricity generation sector. Our numerical simulations imply enhanced efficiency in the generation sector, an explicit increase in GDP (9.743 billion), an effectively reduced CPI (0.037%), great gains of employment of 0.593 million, and a significant resident welfare improvement of 5.853 billion RMB yuan. Accordingly, it is undoubtedly necessary to establish a real market economy in the electricity generation sector and thus facilitate market-oriented reform of electricity industry in China.