基于三维生态足迹模型扩展的土地承载力指数研究

Hebei Province is located in the north of the North China Plain, surrounded two major cities, Beijing and Tianjin, with excellent geographical conditions. Since the reform and opening, Hebei has made great achievements in economy, society and some other fields. But while the economy is developing rapidly, its ecological environment has been destroyed badly. There have been lots of ecological problems, such as water shortages, water pollution, urban air pollution, marine pollution, serious forest resource destruction and land desertification, etc. The series of ecological problems poses a serious threat to the sustainable development of social economy in Hebei Province. Quantitative measurement of sustainable development is one of the forefront issues of current international ecological economy research. The core of sustainable development is the effective management of natural capital, which means to achieve the strong sustainability of development, we must maintain our own stock of natural assets, from the perspective of eco-economics. Therefore, it is of great significance to measure the gap between the demand for natural resources and the resources that can be provided by nature of residents of Hebei Province. In this paper, by extending the range of the footprint depth in Niccolucci's 3D ecological footprint model from 1 to 0, using a unified 3D model framework to analyze ecological surplus state, we achieved the unification of the resource flow and inventory occupancy in the accounting in human production and life, got the ecological footprint, deficit surplus and depth of footprint of Hebei Province from 2002 to 2016. On the basis of this, to determine whether the current land is in a state of overload and its overload level, the land pressure evaluation indexes, such as the pressure index of agricultural product, water resources, carbon sequestration, construction and land comprehensive burden index was introduced. The results showed: 1) the per capita ecological footprint of Hebei Province increased continuously from 2002 to 2016, but the per capita ecological productive land area changed little. 2) Hebei Provinces depth of footsteps was large, especially for water and fossil fuel land. The production consumption of natural resources by Hebei Province residents was far more from the flow of resources, caused a great consumption of resource stock in Hebei Province. 3) The ecological deficit of Hebei Province was serious, the number in 2016 was 3.26 hm2human-1. 4) The pressure index of agricultural product, water resources, carbon sequestration, and land comprehensive burden index were all greater than 1, and the pressure values of water resources pressure index, carbon sink pressure index and land comprehensive burden index are above 10 and 3 respectively, Hebei faces serious land pressure. The production and living of the residents have caused serious burdens on all kinds of ecological productive land. The above 4 points show that the demand for resource in Hebei Province is far greater than the supply, sustainable development has been seriously hampered. Reference to the development model of Hebei Province, we put forward some proposals: change the mode of economic development, adjust the industrial structure, develop circular economy and improve resource utilization, which could do help to improve the sustainable development level of Hebei Province. Therefore, Hebei Province should establish a resource-intensive national economic system as soon as possible; achieve the transformation of economic development model from extensive development to intensive management. In the premise of maintaining rapid economic growth, the comprehensive utilization and sustainable use of resource will be achieved. Continuously improve the quality of the ecological environment in the region and ultimately achieve all-round change in society, politics, economics, scientific technology, management, establish an effective, coordinated and innovative sustainable development mechanism, and finally achieve the goal to be a powerful coastal economic province.