基于ARMA模型的汶川地震灾害宏观经济影响评估
he macroeconomic impact assessment of wenchuan earthquake based on the ARMA model
本文基于ARMA模型，以四川省为研究区域，利用GDP比率损失（GDP-loss-ratio）为评价依据，并考虑地震灾害对严重受灾区预和周边其他区域的不同影响作用，分别评估了严重受灾区域和其他区域灾后几年的GDP比率动态变化，发现地震灾害发生后，对严重受灾区经济产生先抑制后促进的影响，而对周围其他区域则积极影响更为明显，从而明确了在短中时期内，灾害对不同区域的宏观经济影响，有助于合理评估灾害的经济影响，促进防灾救灾策略的有效实施。
his paper has evaluated the macroeconomic impact with GDP-loss-ratio of Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan province based on ARIMA model. Furthermore, the study assessed the different influence earthquake brought to the stricken area and the surrounding areas. It showed that the earthquake had negative macroeconomic effect on the stricken area firstly and then came the positive effect after two years, and that the effects on surrounding areas were mostly positive.
郝晓琳、吴吉东
经济学
自然灾害学地震宏观经济GDP损失
natural disasterearthquakemacroeconomyGDP loss
郝晓琳,吴吉东.基于ARMA模型的汶川地震灾害宏观经济影响评估[EB/OL].(2014-03-11)[2025-08-16].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201403-340.点此复制
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