Polygenic modelling of treatment effect heterogeneity

Abstract Mendelian randomization is the use of genetic variants to assess the effect of intervening on a risk factor using observational data. We consider the scenario in which there is a pharmacomimetic (that is, treatment-mimicking) genetic variant that can be used as a proxy for a particular pharmacological treatment that changes the level of the risk factor. If the association of the pharmacomimetic genetic variant with the risk factor is stronger in one subgroup of the population, then we may expect the effect of the treatment to be stronger in that subgroup. We test for gene–gene interactions in the associations of variants with a modifiable risk factor, where one genetic variant is treated as pharmacomimetic and the other as an effect modifier, to find genetic sub-groups of the population with different predicted response to treatment. If individual genetic variants that are strong effect modifiers cannot be found, moderating variants can be combined using a random forest of interaction trees method into a polygenic response score, analogous to a polygenic risk score for risk prediction. We illustrate the application of the method to investigate effect heterogeneity in the effect of statins on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.