天津市经济增长的影响因素分析及其实证研究

Since the reform and opening up, the rapid economic development in Tianjin. There are many factors that affect the economic development, the only choice of investment, consumption, exports, energy consumption of these four factors. First of all, using GDP 1993-2015, exports, consumption, investment, energy consumption data, as well as the 2000 Tianjin -2015 export structure data. A preliminary study was carried out. It is found that the contribution rate of investment in Tianjin's economic growth is the highest, while the export contribution rate is the lowest. After the stationarity test, we find that the two order difference time series is stationary. In order to ensure that the same order of the whole premise, the use of AIC minimum criteria to determine the optimal lag order, the co integration test. Can be obtained, GDP, investment, consumption, exports, energy consumption, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the five variables. Then Grainger test. The interaction between investment, export, consumption, energy and GDP is found to be interactive. At the same time, investment in the four factors of consumption and effect on economic growth in Tianjin is the most significant, in addition, the decomposition analysis shows that the impact degree of GDP itself, investment, exports, consumption, energy consumption of GDP in order to weaken the variance. Finally, based on the above research, the paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the level of Tianjin's export and to improve the efficiency of energy use while increasing energy consumption, so that they can contribute to the economic development of Tianjin.?????