基于GM(1,1)的我国电煤需求预测

With the increase of the electric coal consumption and demand, the contradiction between electric coal supply and demand become more and more prominent, so we need a kind of scientific and reasonable method to forecast the demand for electric coal in China. According to our recent 6-year time series of electric coal consumption, we built electric coal demand forecasting model based on GM (1,1) and predicted the electric coal demand in China in 2011 with dynamic prediction method and analyzed the results at last. This paper is important for China to develop coal production plane and regulate balance of electric coal supply and demand .