宁夏回族自治区城镇居民消费支出预测分析--基于优化的GM(1,1)模型
Forecast and Analysis of urban household consumption expenditure in Ningxia Autonomous Region Based on optimal GM (1,1) model
为了减小GM(1,1)模型的预测误差，提高模型的预测效果，对GM(1,1)模型进行优化。首先通过采用滑动平均预处理、取对数、开次方和在建模样本前面加上灰系数b等方法对原始建模数据进行初始值的优化处理，然后对背景值公式进行优化，构建出新的GM(1,1)模型。最后以宁夏回族自治区的2008-2015年的城镇居民消费支出数据作为研究对象，进行模拟实验。实验结果表明，优化后的新GM(1,1)模型相对于传统的GM(1,1)模型具有更高的预测精度，可以用来预测宁夏回族自治区2016-2018年的城镇居民消费支出，为有关部门制定合理的经济政策提供决策依据。
In order to reduce the prediction error of GM (1,1) model and to improve the prediction effect of the model, the GM (1,1) model is optimized. Firstly the initial value is optimized by means of moving-weighted-average, logarithm, n-th root, and addition of grey coefficient b in front of the original modeling data sequentially, and secondly the back-ground value formula is optimized. At last, a simulation experiment is carried out using the data of urban household consumption expenditure in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region as the research object, and the results demonstrate that the new GM(1,1) model is superior to the original GM(1,1) model in respect of prediction accuracy, which can be used to predict the urban household consumption expenditure in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from 2016 to 2018, and to provide decision-making basis for the relevant departments to develop a reasonable economic policy.
张涛、李凯
经济计划、经济管理
管理科学与工程GM(11)模型背景值城镇居民消费支出
management science and engineeringGM(11) modelthe background valueurban household consumption expenditure
张涛,李凯.宁夏回族自治区城镇居民消费支出预测分析--基于优化的GM(1,1)模型[EB/OL].(2017-07-17)[2025-08-21].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201707-63.点此复制
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