塔里木河流域降水特性时空分析

Based on the daily precipitation database of the 29 weather station in the Tarim river basin and the ambitus areas, we use theisson method to calculate the precipitation on the basin, and we analyze the temporal and spatial variation of the annual, seasonal and typical month precipitation on the basin. The study results show that the annual precipitation of the Tarim river is 61mm and mainly in summer (Jun to Aug), the precipitation on the basin is uneven distribution and from southeast to northwest increases gradually and the precipitation in the northwest is more than other areas. We use Mann-Kendall test to analyse the trend of the precipitation, and the results show that the annual precipitation is gradually increase and the linearity growth rate is 1.4mm/10a; The precipitation’s increase in the northwest of the basin is obvious, but the precipitation of the area in the center of the basin which near the desert decrease and the decrease is mainly in spring and autumn; Seen from the month scale, we can know that there are nine months’ precipitation increase, and the precipitation of the February, April and September decrease and the Feb’s precipitation decrease obviously.